Missouri marijuana sales trend down, loss of medical card holders and end of tourism season tell the story

Missouri’s marijuana market has seen staggering growth in 2023, but as sales dipped in recent months a slew of potential factors rose to the surface.

The end of Missouri’s booming tourism season, the state hosted more than 40 million visitors in 2022 and brought in more than $16 billion in revenue from tourists, a slow decline in retail pricing as the market stabilizes, and an eroding patient population seem to hold the key.

Missouri has lost more than 75,000 certified medical marijuana patients over the last 12 months. More than 1/3 of the medical market which averaged nearly $35 million dollars per month in the second half of 2022.  At the same time, the monthly medical sales have consistently fallen by November of this year, Missouri brought in less than half of the monthly medical sales average of 2022, bringing in $16.4 million in retail sales for medical purchases last month. While many of those patients have become consumers, and added to the recreational market, the loss of tourism and long-term summer residents, indicates that Missouri’s true market value will hover closer to the $110-$115 million mark than the $120-$125 marks seen during the state’s summer season.

For operators, planning accordingly for a market that may lose $10-15 million per month during the winter and early spring months is an important focal point heading into the coming year. As prices continue to come down and the average ticket price per customer levels off, projections for Missouri’s marijuana industry should be more conservative for 2024.

In Missouri’s first year of legalized adult use marijuana sales, recreational sales have shown consistency, bringing in more than $91 million in each full month and averaging more than $95 million per month since June. Missouri dispensaries registered $96.3 million in recreational sales at retail in November.

   

The total sales for November stood at $112.7 million, with total sales for 2023, amounting to more than $1.2 billion, underscoring the significant economic impact of the cannabis industry in Missouri.

Experts attribute this trend to various factors, including the expanding accessibility of recreational marijuana and the diversifying range of products available in the market. While patients transition to the recreational market, the data also reveals an interesting pattern in consumer behavior, with the late spring and summer months averaging more than $120 million, followed by a steady decrease towards the end of the year.

As Missouri’s marijuana market continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these trends are reinforced in the upcoming year. For now, November’s sales figures paint a picture of a dynamic market that is rapidly adapting and should consistently bring in more than $1 billion to the state’s economy.

Missouri is on pace to sell more than $1.3 billion worth of marijuana in 2023.